Volatility 101: Should Canntab Therapeutics (CNSX:PILL) Shares Have Dropped 11%?

The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. For example, the Canntab Therapeutics Limited (CNSX:PILL) share price is down 11% in the last year. That contrasts poorly with the market return of 2.1%. We wouldn't rush to judgement on Canntab Therapeutics because we don't have a long term history to look at. But it's up 9.6% in the last week.

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Check out our latest analysis for Canntab Therapeutics

With just CA$67,778 worth of revenue in twelve months, we don't think the market considers Canntab Therapeutics to have proven its business plan. You have to wonder why venture capitalists aren't funding it. So it seems shareholders are too busy dreaming about the progress to come than dwelling on the current (lack of) revenue. It seems likely some shareholders believe that Canntab Therapeutics will significantly advance the business plan before too long.

Companies that lack both meaningful revenue and profits are usually considered high risk. There is almost always a chance they will need to raise more capital, and their progress - and share price - will dictate how dilutive that is to current holders. While some companies like this go on to deliver on their plan, making good money for shareholders, many end in painful losses and eventual de-listing.

Canntab Therapeutics had cash in excess of all liabilities of just CA$2.0m when it last reported (February 2019). So if it has not already moved to replenish reserves, we think the near-term chances of a capital raising event are pretty high. With that in mind, you can understand why the share price dropped 11% in the last year. The image below shows how Canntab Therapeutics's balance sheet has changed over time; if you want to see the precise values, simply click on the image.

In reality it's hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. Would it bother you if insiders were selling the stock? I'd like that just about as much as I like to drink milk and fruit juice mixed together. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.

A Different Perspective

Given that the market gained 2.1% in the last year, Canntab Therapeutics shareholders might be miffed that they lost 11%. While the aim is to do better than that, it's worth recalling that even great long-term investments sometimes underperform for a year or more. The share price decline has continued throughout the most recent three months, down 2.4%, suggesting an absence of enthusiasm from investors. Basically, most investors should be wary of buying into a poor-performing stock, unless the business itself has clearly improved. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

Of course Canntab Therapeutics may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.