Teradyne Inc (TER) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript
C. J. Muse -- Evercore -- Analyst
Great. Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Atif Malik with Citi. Your line is open.
Atif Malik -- Citi -- Analyst
Hi. Thank you for taking my questions, and Greg, congratulations on a stellar career. First question, Mark, can you remind us what is your market share in the memory market today and what's your aspirations will be with the launch of the high speed DRAM tester this year?
Mark E. Jagiela -- Chief Executive Officer and President
Yeah, that's a good question. So 2018, roughly 29% market share memory test. That was the beginning of penetrating wafer test in 2018. So in 2019, we expect to bring that up to sort of 33% that range. And then in the mid term, we can get to 40% with the introduction of this high speed DRAM package tester as well as continued expansion in the wafer test.
Atif Malik -- Citi -- Analyst
Okay. And then I'm really encouraged by the growth you're seeing in the Wireless Test market. Can you tell us what your 5G sales percentage is of the Wireless Test sales and where do you see it going? And the reason I'm asking that is, we're seeing a pretty substantial growth in 5G related equipment sales at Anritsu and Keysight. Thank you.
Mark E. Jagiela -- Chief Executive Officer and President
The Wireless businesses here we have gotten some 5G key strategic design in business. There are less about the dollars, it's more about we're in the key chipset players. And therefore, when it does go to production in 2021 or thereabouts, we've got the best position, because we're the best in production. So we're little less focused on the dollars but it's millions of dollars we've gotten in 5G. We have had very good business from other standards, and in Wireless Test, there's a puffer of new technologies, new standards, there's multiple even five 5G technologies. There's Wi Fi 6 coming. So we've talked about LitePoint being in a low and having pretty good financial performance for being in the low -- having good profits and good gross margins. I suspect for the next several years, LitePoint is going to have tailwinds at their back after having headwinds for three years or so. With all these new standards coming out, and you need new testers for these new standards, and LitePoint is the leader in production. So I think LitePoint is on a great spot for the next several years.
Atif Malik -- Citi -- Analyst
Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Chin (ph) with Stifel. Your line is open.
Brian Chin -- Stifel -- Analyst
Hi, good morning. I have a few questions. But first, congratulations on the strong finish to the year and an early congratulations to Greg on his planned retirement.
Gregory R. Beecher -- Chief Financial Officer
Thank you.
Brian Chin -- Stifel -- Analyst
First -- sure. First, I had a question on Industrial Automation, in terms of the new long term growth rate, you are clearly the market leader in this space, but I can make the counter intuitive argument here that you would benefit from the emergence of another good competitor which today hasn't materialized. And by that, I mean, it's a lot for you all to have to shoulder the load virtually alone in terms of marketing, training and the development of future collaborative robot applications. Would be interested to get your perspective on that?
Mark E. Jagiela -- Chief Executive Officer and President
I think I would never directly wish for that, but you have a -- there's a bit of truth in what you're saying. We are developing the market in terms of creating market awareness and creating demand, a latent demand is out there, but there's no precedent here to write on. Now early in the cobot era, the Company Rethink Robotics that recently folded, led some of the evangelism around the cobot market that UR rode (ph) those curtails and then surpass them dramatically. And we're at the tip of the spear now blazing that trail and it is one of the principal challenges we have -- it's awareness, it's market awareness to limit the growth.
All that being said, we're working on a lot of things this year to enhance that. Our lead generation capabilities developing rapidly and and we're not going to wait for a competitor to do that work for us. We actually stopped a lot of the OpEx that Greg talked about here is toward that end.
Brian Chin -- Stifel -- Analyst
Sure, that's helpful. Before -- I have one question on the Wireless Test as well, but a part be it just IA, in terms of that 35% to 40% growth in 2019, what does that imply for UR growth? And then let me ask the Wireless Test question and then you can answer that. It was a $1 billion TAM over this decade. It sounds like some 5G cellular starting to kick in a little bit in '19 but that's really a 2020 probably go forward. What could that can go to, at least $500 million, $600 million, and maybe higher even. What is the reasonable expectation for LitePoint market share?
Gregory R. Beecher -- Chief Financial Officer
Got it. Okay, starting with the first question. What was the first question --
Mark E. Jagiela -- Chief Executive Officer and President
The UR component?
Gregory R. Beecher -- Chief Financial Officer
Yes.
Mark E. Jagiela -- Chief Executive Officer and President
You see why he's got to retire here?
Gregory R. Beecher -- Chief Financial Officer
Good question. All right. In the 35% to 40% growth, UR would be about 28% because MiR is about 100% growth. So MiR is helping UR. And keep in mind, 28% is probably the lowest growth rate UR has ever had and that was the quarter from Q3 to Q4. That's a very short time period. So we think we've got UR in at a reasonable and maybe cautious level, but there are some uncertainties ahead in the next quarter or two.
Mark E. Jagiela -- Chief Executive Officer and President
5G TAM?
Gregory R. Beecher -- Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, 5G TAM. There's a couple of pieces to it. LitePoint, we think starting in 2021, there's a little bit of activity prior, 10s of millions, but the TAM for LitePoint is probably $100 million to $150 million higher for several years starting in 2021. This is a production portion for 5G.
And then in Semi, when you put it all together, it's probably $300 million to $400 million, that includes $100 million to $200 million for the RFPs and the data processing piece makes up the balance to get you to $300 million to $400 million. And our share is quite -- is very healthy in Semi. We probably get half of that. And then in LitePoint that's will be determined. We were not big players in 4G but we're early in 5G and we're working with a number of the key set -- key chipset players. So we expect to have meaningful share in our 5G cellular at LitePoint. And it's also multiple standards at LitePoint. There's also 6G coming first and millimeter wave coming later.
Brian Chin -- Stifel -- Analyst
All right. Great. Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar with Cowen. Your line is open.
Krish Sankar -- Cowen -- Analyst
Hi. Thanks for taking my question, and congrats Greg on a great career. I have two questions. Number one is on the Memory Test market, if I look at your commentary, is it fair to assume that Memory Test this year is going to be down about 25% but your revenues in memory might be down only 10%? Just wanted to check if the math is right.
Mark E. Jagiela -- Chief Executive Officer and President
Yeah, the market itself last year have finished in the $900 million to $1 billion. We'll sort it out in the next few months as to what it really was. But yes, so the market is going to be in that sort of phenomenally $700 million range. It's down 20, low 20s. I think we will be down much, much less than that and because of the share gains we picked up. So roughly the math you've done is right.
Krish Sankar -- Cowen -- Analyst
Got it. Thank you. And then follow-up on IA. It looks like bin picking seems to be the next big killer app for cobots. And it seems like you guys have been bin picking beta solution coming out later this year. And you've spoken about in the past about a 2020 ramp with that. Is that -- are you seeing any indication from customers that this is going to be a pretty steep ramp next year and what are the prime -- what are the main industry or the main verticals driving this bin picking uptick? Thank you.
Gregory R. Beecher -- Chief Financial Officer
Bin picking, if you look at the number of people that are doing these tedious mind-numbing bin picking tasks, it's both the number of all other tasks. It's a very high number of tasks. Now the first bin picking machine or solution we're going to provide is going to be able to do much more than any other bin picking machine because it has half planning in it, so it can pick the option at the right pose, doesn't have to put it down again. There's more likely to be able to empty a bin and place a pot (ph) with positions. So it's going to be a step function above what's available today.
Now it'll take time to train the distributors and the integrators, so there's a rollout period that'll take time. There might be some parts whether they're too shiny or they have a odd configuration that we may not go after right away. But it's a very large market that I suspect is going to be a beginning of a multiyear large wave of bin picking and probably new advance grippers developed by some for the capability that we're providing,
but we're excited about it because we saw this many years ago as an enormous untapped market that was hard to get to. And with Energid, that was the missing piece. And low-cost vision modules have come to market.
So the pieces are there. Now to do it -- now we're just finishing up the user interface and making sure it all works seamlessly at the right speed and so forth. So very excited about it and I think you'll see 2019, the beginning of early part of that wave. I'm sorry, 2020.
Krish Sankar -- Cowen -- Analyst
Thanks folks. Thank you very much. And congrats, Greg.
Gregory R. Beecher -- Chief Financial Officer
Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Richard Eastman with Baird. Your line is open.
Richard Eastman -- Baird -- Analyst
Yes. Mark, could you maybe -- and maybe just you provided this, but could just speak to where the SOC Test market ended up in 2018?
Mark E. Jagiela -- Chief Executive Officer and President
In terms of size of the market? Yeah. Again, like memory, we're still a few months away from having final numbers on that, but our estimate, it's in the $2.9 billion to $3 billion range, is how it ended.
Richard Eastman -- Baird -- Analyst
Okay. And then just a question, we were seeing some of the analog chip vendors kind of throw off warning flags as well, kind of hear STMicro and TI. And I'm curious, as you look out to 2019, I've got this 2.3 to 2.7 was kind of your estimate, but I'm -- for the market. But I'm curious, the shift in the marketplace, how do you see that playing out? Does analog stay stronger or mobility, obviously, I think you kind of suggested, might be flattish to down a little bit. But I'm just curious how you think the pieces within the marketplace, where the strength might lie versus where the risk might be?
Mark E. Jagiela -- Chief Executive Officer and President
Okay. Yes. So I think, let's start with mobility, because it's the biggest piece of the market still. So in 2019 mobility, I think, will be down a little bit, because of some of the one-time effects I alluded to earlier. I think our business will be roughly flat year-over-year, but the market itself could come down a couple hundred million, because of some of this one-time tooling that occurred in '18 around some foundry shifts.
Richard Eastman -- Baird -- Analyst
Okay.
Mark E. Jagiela -- Chief Executive Officer and President
So that's a significant part of that reduction. The automotive and linear I think are going to be pretty -- from what I can tell today, linear could be off of this sort of all-time high it was in 2018, but not much. It may be certainly 10% or less is what it would look like in the model. And automotive look still pretty healthy, so flattish. So that leaves other areas such as PC-related, GPU, cloud-related things and that should be down in that sort of 10%, 15%, 20% range. So when we add those up, because of the $200 million-ish drop in mobility, because of these one-time effects, that's how you get to the TAM.
Richard Eastman -- Baird -- Analyst
I see. Okay, OK. That's really helpful. And then just one last question around the IA business. What do acquisition prospects look like there? Is there still a healthy pipeline, and do they slant software or maybe just characterize that a little bit perhaps, Greg.
Gregory R. Beecher -- Chief Financial Officer
It's a incredibly healthy pipeline. This is a space where there's many start-ups. It's a whole new greenfield, so there's next-generation technology. There's a number of software players. It's hard to synthesize precisely what's out there. But what we see is, companies that can fit with our next-generation automation that is automating tedious task and there's other pieces that could fit into our portfolio. But I'll add, there's nothing we need and what I'm really excited about is in some of our products. You take MiR this year, MiR has expanded into the MiR500, so they've expanded their product line into heavier payload. They've also expanded into hospitals.
Now the more we can take our existing products and get into new markets or submarkets, that's probably the highest ROI. But there very well may be some other nice pieces, another Energid is possible. The path planning should open up bin picking. That's more of an emerging technology that no one else had. Vision was available. We weren't going into the vision.
So there's other -- it's a little bit of a chess game. There's other pieces that may be possible that we buy them and accelerate them or we just work with them as a partner. There's a lot of that work going on our BDL group to try to figure out what's the next best chess move to make.
Richard Eastman -- Baird -- Analyst
And mostly, again, from your comments this is around expanding applications a little bit more software, there's not a lot of hardware that you're really looking at?
Gregory R. Beecher -- Chief Financial Officer
Correct.
Richard Eastman -- Baird -- Analyst
Okay. Thank you and best of luck, Greg. Thank you.
Gregory R. Beecher -- Chief Financial Officer
Thank you very much.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Toshiya Hari -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst
Great. Thanks so much for taking the question. I had a follow-up question on your analog test business. Mark, you talked about the upside you saw in Q4 and the strength you saw throughout 2018 as it relates to Eagle Test. How should we reconcile that commentary with some of the trends that your customers are speaking to in terms of weakness in the near term? Is it the complexity kind of dynamic offsetting the weakness or is it timing or is it a little bit of both? How should we think about that?
Mark E. Jagiela -- Chief Executive Officer and President
I think it's timing. In terms of the recent commentary, the effects of that -- to the magnitude and the effects of that would be, we're probably still three months away. But in 2018, the unit and complexity growth both were very encouraging. And things like unit growth could tempered here, complexity growth I don't think is abating whatsoever. So the recent quarterly announcements from some of the key analog players if in fact was in effect that we're going to feel from that is probably yet to be -- it's probably in second quarter.
Toshiya Hari -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst
Got it. And then my follow-up was on long-term gross margins. You guys came in at 58% in 2018. You're guiding long-term gross margins, I guess, kind of stay where they are today in the 57%, 58% range. It feels like you guys continue to make progress in terms of improving gross margins at UR. You talked about, I guess, outside of MiR. I think LitePoint, which has a nice trajectory historically has had very nice gross margins when things were good. So I guess the question is, is 57% to 58% more of a conservative target or are there kind of minuses that I'm not aware of? Thank you.
Mark E. Jagiela -- Chief Executive Officer and President
There are minuses right now that we have in mind. There is, I'll say there's more new accounts in Semi Test around AI that is a whole new battlefield that'll jump off. But I think what I had in mind when I put those numbers in is, in Universal Robots, there's going to be very large customers buying cobots in some volume, and I expect when that happens there'll be better competition we'll be up against. And we'll be competing for kind of the design in for the next 100, 500 or some higher number of cobots. And that's what I'm thinking that while we'll get material cost down, some of it will be diminished by some of the large account negotiations.
Toshiya Hari -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst
Got it. Thank you.
Andrew J. Blanchard -- Vice President of Investor Relations
And operator, we can sneak in just one last question please.
Operator
Your last question comes from the line of Thomas Diffley with D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.
Thomas Diffley -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst
Yes. Good morning. I like to ask one more question on the memory side. I guess in general, what percentage of the DRAM test market is high speed maker today? And it sounds like speed has gone up across-the-board to become a bigger part of that market going forward. So just your views on the high speed part of DRAM?
Gregory R. Beecher -- Chief Financial Officer
It does shift year-to-year quite a bit depending on the pricing of the commodities, our memory manufacturers going to shift investments toward NAND or for toward DRAM. But I would say as a general rule of thumb, the final test of DRAM is about 20-ish percent of the overall Memory Test market.
Thomas Diffley -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst
And then the high-speed portion of that versus commodity DRAM?
Mark E. Jagiela -- Chief Executive Officer and President
Most of it in terms of new investment is high speed. For sort of commodity old-school DRAM, there's not a lot of capacity expansion. Old-generation equipment can sort of be waterfall back there. So anything being bought tends to be for high speed.
Thomas Diffley -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst
Okay, great. And then finally when you look at the NAND market or I should say the hybrid market with things like cross-point, what type of tester do you need for that market and is that changing over time as well?
Mark E. Jagiela -- Chief Executive Officer and President
I'd say, one of the things we've seen in memories and flash, especially and sort of derivatives of flash is a lot of diversity in the protocols of I/O. The internal sales structure and such aren't significant in the impact to the tester but the I/O protocols are. And the products that we've developed for flash, the thing that's allowed them to be so successful is how quickly we can adapt them for these higher and higher-speed emerging protocols, so that applies not to the cross-point type products and all these products.
Thomas Diffley -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
Mark E. Jagiela -- Chief Executive Officer and President
All right, well, great. Thanks everybody and we look forward to talking to you in the days and weeks ahead. This concludes the call.
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Duration: 62 minutes
Call participants:
Andrew J. Blanchard -- Vice President of Investor Relations
Mark E. Jagiela -- Chief Executive Officer and President
Gregory R. Beecher -- Chief Financial Officer
Vivek Arya -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst
Timothy Arcuri -- UBS -- Analyst
John Pitzer -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini -- SIG -- Analyst
C. J. Muse -- Evercore -- Analyst
Atif Malik -- Citi -- Analyst
Brian Chin -- Stifel -- Analyst
Krish Sankar -- Cowen -- Analyst
Richard Eastman -- Baird -- Analyst
Toshiya Hari -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst
Thomas Diffley -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst
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