Still haven’t tried cannabis? You probably don’t plan to, poll suggests

Canadians who have yet to try cannabis are unlikely to experiment with the drug anytime soon, according to data released Thursday by public affairs firm Hill+Knowlton Strategies.

The firm polled 1,500 adult residents of Canada between May 7 and May 15 on their behaviour and attitudes toward cannabis and found that only about 10 per cent of “rare and non-consumers” expect to try cannabis in the future.

The poll comes after Statistics Canada concluded as recently as early May that the number of first-time users was up drastically in the first quarter of 2019 compared with the year prior.

Between January and April, according to the agency, there were 646,000 first-time cannabis users — nearly double that of early 2018.

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One explanation for the differential, according to Omar Yar Khan, vice-president of Public Affairs for Hill+Knowlton, is that in the lead up to and immediately following legalization, most consumers who were predisposed to try cannabis already had.

While there might not be a surge of new users entering the cannabis consumption space, Hill+Knowlton’s research suggests that current cannabis consumers are expected to increase their consumption over the next year, especially upon the legalization of edibles and concentrates later in 2019.

“The market opportunity that exists for producers and retailers now is to take current users of dry flower and convince them to try new infused and topical products when they become available,” Khan said.

“Among the 40 per cent of regular consumers who have already increased their consumption over the past year, half expect their consumption to increase even more over the next 12 months,” the survey noted.

Cannabis use also appears to be highly correlated to how much consumers know about about cannabis to begin with — on that front, the Hill+Knowlton poll concludes that cannabis knowledge levels are still low, with “few” Canadians describing themselves as being knowledgeable about cannabis products. The highest knowledge levels are of dried flower and lowest levels of knowledge are of cannabis-infused topical creams, which are due to become legal in October 2019.

Among the 40 per cent of regular consumers who have increased their consumption over the past year, half expect their consumption to increase even more over the next 12 months

Hill+Knowlton survey

Almost 40 per cent of Canadians polled report never having used cannabis, while 31 per cent have used it at some point, but not in the past three months.

Sixteen per cent of Canadians categorize themselves as regular consumers, and use cannabis at least weekly, according to the survey.

Demand for cannabis has far exceeded supply since legalization in Canada, with many large cannabis companies still struggling to grow at scale. Getting access to cannabis at brick-and-mortar stores has also been slow; Ontario allowed only a limited number of retail stores to open at the beginning of April.

Despite the rocky start, cannabis inventories are slowly piling up — a recent report from Scotiabank predicts that the domestic cannabis market will become “heavily oversupplied” in the medium to long term, despite surging demand.

“Producers we have spoken to are generally aware that the industry will eventually be oversupplied, but there is a degree of complacency since few think the market will become oversupplied anytime soon,” wrote Oliver Rowe, the bank’s cannabis analyst.

If indeed few new consumers enter the market, then oversupply will only be avoided if more consumers from the illicit market start converting to legal sources.

The illegal market is still the primary source of cannabis purchases, according to both Hill+Knowlton’s survey and the Scotiabank report — the latter puts 78 per cent of overall cannabis sales as coming from the illegal market.

“The main drivers of higher illicit conversion rates will be competitive pricing, competitive product offerings and a strict enforcement of the Cannabis Act,” wrote Rowe.

Hill+Knowlton’s data points toward price as the main driver for cannabis purchases, with almost half of consumers saying that is the greatest factor driving their purchasing decisions.

Legal cannabis is still far more expensive than product available on the black market — the most recent Statistics Canada data says legal buyers pay a 57 per cent premium.