The cannabis space remains enticing thanks to both the short-term and long-term trends we have in place. As a result of those trends, it has become a natural interest among investors. Attention has been gravitating toward Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC) and not because it’s the wildest one to trade. Instead, it’s because CGC stock is one of the more high-quality names in the industry.
Should it be one you consider on the long side?
As with everything in the stock market, it comes down to several considerations. Things like, what kind of timeline are investors using, what is their risk tolerance and do they consider themselves traders or investors?
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Not only do the answers to these questions indicate whether investors should be in the cannabis space at all, but it also impacts whether Canopy stock is their best choice. For instance, if they are investors instead of traders, they may be best suited in a name like Cronos Group (NASDAQ:CRON) or CGC stock. If they’re traders, perhaps Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) or Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB) may be better suited for their tastes.
That’s not to say ACB can’t be an investment or CGC a trade, but it’s all about putting the most odds in our favor. So how exactly does Canopy Growth benefit long-term investors looking for alpha in the cannabis trade?
Let’s explore.
At first, investors were cheering the company’s earnings results. Canopy Growth stock initially jumped about 4% despite missing earnings expectations and buyers were holding up the stock. However, selling pressure has since set in and it tells me that the share price needs time to digest.
Last quarter, revenue of $83 million (Canadian dollars, by the way) surged more than 282% vs. the same quarter a year ago. Canopy Growth stock recorded a GAAP loss of 38 cents per share, missing estimates for a loss of 25 cents per share by 13 cents. Losses aside, the company is absolutely crushing it. Triple-digit revenue growth is Canopy’s “short-term†driver, while long-term investors remain optimistic about further legalization.
In the U.S., only about 20% of the country has approved cannabis for recreational consumption. While it will take time to achieve a full 100%, the country continues to gravitate in that direction, as well as making progress on the federal level. Let’s not also forget whole countries — like Canada — can approve cannabis use for its population, too.
This long-term legalization catalyst is one reason the highly regarded Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) dumped $4 billion into CGC to own roughly 40% of the company. Still, its valuation looms large. Shares command a market cap of roughly $16 billion. Even if the company racked up $400 million in sales this year, we’re still talking about a price-to-sales ratio of 40.
Whew, that’s high. But if CGC can maintain a lofty level of revenue growth, the company will eventually grow into that valuation. It will take patience and nerves of steel for investors to participate in that migration, but the long-term payoff could be huge.
In the last section, I talked about the need for CGC stock to digest. It’s not so much the earnings result that stretched out Canopy, but the entire move over the last two months. The stock essentially doubled from its December lows to its January highs.
Any time a stock does that, a pullback or consolidation is justified. One major observation I have on CGC stock is its inability to take out its January high when it released earnings last week. In other words, despite investors seemingly liking the quarter, they didn’t like it enough to bid it up to new 2019 highs. It also shows some downtrend pressure from the stock’s earlier run in the fourth quarter of 2018.
Overall though, the trend is up. Despite this, I think CGC stock is now a buy-on-any-dip candidate. I would like to see a drop into the mid-$30s and for the 50-day and/or 200-day moving average to support the name. That would allow Canopy Growth stock to digest the big move without negating its uptrend.
Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.
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