Edited Transcript of AFI earnings conference call or presentation 7-May-19 2:00pm GMT

Thomson Reuters StreetEvents - finance.yahoo.com Posted 5 years ago
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We expect that the impact of pricing actions, productivity gains and other cost savings will help to offset these continuing inflationary pressures.

Additionally, activity in our end markets, particularly in residential have improved in recent months, which is encouraging. With this in mind, we continue to expect full year EBITDA to be heavily weighted towards the second half of 2019 as the market strengthens and elevated inventory levels in the channel are worked down.

On the P&L, our effective tax rate could change significantly quarter-to-quarter. We continue to expect our tax rate to be approximately 25% in 2019.

In regards to cash flow, we expect capital expenditures of approximately $30 million for the year. Maintenance CapEx should continue to approximate 2% to 3% of sales with the balance of the spending budgeted for high return investments. While we are not providing a full year 2019 free cash flow outlook, the majority of our 2019 working capital investments were planned for the first quarter, and we expect to build cash as we progress through the year.

With that, I will now hand the call back to Larry for closing comments.

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Larry S. McWilliams, Armstrong Flooring, Inc. - Chairman & Interim CEO [5]

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Thanks, Doug. As we have discussed today, while the year is off to a challenging start, we believe we will experience a better operating environment in the second half. I along with the entire Armstrong Flooring team are committed to improving our business through our efforts to grow share in LVT, enhance innovation across our award-winning portfolio, strengthen our distribution partnerships and leverage our leadership position in traditional commercial categories.

We believe these priorities will help accelerate positive momentum in our business over the long term. We look forward to executing on our objectives as we build upon our strong brand and market leadership to drive returns for our shareholders.

Operator, we are now ready to take questions.

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Questions and Answers

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Operator [1]

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Our first question comes from the line of Alvaro Lacayo with G. Research.

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Alvaro Lacayo, G. Research, LLC - Research Analyst [2]

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Doug and Larry, I do want to start off talking about the revenue decline. And I realize you highlighted a lot of the drivers there, which were not unique to AFI. It seems like these were industry-related issues, but the magnitude in decline of the revenue was a little bit higher than what we've sort of normally seen across some of the competitive set.

Maybe if you could talk to us a little bit more about what's going on specifically with AFI? And from a selling standpoint, what has been done right versus wrong in the past? And what kind of leverage you have to change that going forward?

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Douglas B. Bingham, Armstrong Flooring, Inc. - Senior VP, CFO & Treasurer [3]

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This is Doug. Thanks for the question. I think one of the dynamics that we have is that we probably have a higher amount of sourced product than others. And so given the tariff uncertainty and noise and inventory build throughout the channel, I think the destocking impacted us more than a lot of other folks out there. It's also worth remembering that the market softness that we experienced probably disproportionately impacted a lot of the traditional categories that we have, which -- those 2 factors combined made our results more challenged.

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Alvaro Lacayo, G. Research, LLC - Research Analyst [4]

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Okay. And you mentioned -- I think the comment was around residential LVT volume is declining. Can you give us an idea of what the LVT category as a whole grew at during the quarter?

And can you give us an update from a momentum standpoint of what happened in April, because you did make comments around an improving residential market, I was just wondering if that flowed through into what you're seeing in your business?

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Douglas B. Bingham, Armstrong Flooring, Inc. - Senior VP, CFO & Treasurer [5]

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Sure. Yes. So the first question on kind of what we saw with LVT, I think the LVT -- in general, there was a lot of noise in Q1 again because of the tariff situation, not just for us but throughout the industry. We still believe that in normal course of business, LVT is still growing at those kind of high rates that the we've seen from industry sources of 20% to 30%, but we believe that Q1 probably had a little bit of a pause, if you will, given the inventory overhang.

And what was your second question?

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Alvaro Lacayo, G. Research, LLC - Research Analyst [6]

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It was just with regard of trends you've seen in April and you mentioned improving residential end market. And I'm wondering if that's flowing through in what you're seeing in your business?

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Douglas B. Bingham, Armstrong Flooring, Inc. - Senior VP, CFO & Treasurer [7]

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Yes. We did see some pick up as we exited Q1 and came into Q2. It's a trend that we were encouraged by and hope that, that will continue.

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Alvaro Lacayo, G. Research, LLC - Research Analyst [8]

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Okay. And then just -- I realize you're not going to provide free cash flow guide for the year. But can you give us what receivables, inventories, payables and incurred expenses were for just the Resilient business last year versus this year? And what you think your working capital levels are today versus what you expected going into the year?

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Douglas B. Bingham, Armstrong Flooring, Inc. - Senior VP, CFO & Treasurer [9]

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Yes. So I'd say that our working capital levels are about where we expected them to be at this point. As we had indicated, we ended the year with a low working capital position and we expected that we would replenish that. In addition, normal seasonality is that we build net working capital in Q1. Q1 is usually our high watermark and then the working capital comes down throughout the balance of the year. So we're more or less where we expected to be.

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Alvaro Lacayo, G. Research, LLC - Research Analyst [10]

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Year-on-year, so are you up? And how much? And if you breakdown those categories for me, because we need a baseline on the changes in working capital year-on-year?

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Douglas B. Bingham, Armstrong Flooring, Inc. - Senior VP, CFO & Treasurer [11]

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Yes. I don't have all the details that I can provide you right now. But typically, net working capital as a percent of sales for Resilient is in that kind of 10% to 11%.

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Operator [12]

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Our next question comes from the line of Mike Wood with Nomura Instinet.

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Mason Irwin Marion, Instinet, LLC, Research Division - Research Analyst [13]

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This is Mason Marion on for Mike. Can you talk about the impact either positive or negative you're seeing from giving distributors more influence control over your advertising?

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Dominic C. Rice, Armstrong Flooring, Inc. - Chief Product Officer & Senior VP of Global Operations [14]

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It's Dominic Rice here. I'll take that question. Thank you for it. Yes. We pivoted last year and provided our distributor partners with greater responsibility for the merchandising and sale of our residential products, especially into the independent retail channel as they are best positioned on a local and regional basis to execute effectively with those individual retailers. That transition has gone very smoothly, and we're very satisfied with the progress we're making there.

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Mason Irwin Marion, Instinet, LLC, Research Division - Research Analyst [15]

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Okay. And then what is LVT pricing environment has been like, given the substantial competition from overseas competitors and then the increased domestic product capacity from competitors like Shaw and Mohawk.

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Douglas B. Bingham, Armstrong Flooring, Inc. - Senior VP, CFO & Treasurer [16]

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Yes. So Mason, in LVT, I think we've said this in the past that we've seen price pressure on LVT. It's been fairly stable. I'd say that the change in the dynamic more recently has been with the tariff increase. A lot of that got passed through in price to the consumer.

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Operator [17]

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Our next question comes from the line of Justin Speer with Zelman & Associates.

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Justin A. Speer, Zelman & Associates LLC - MD of Research [18]

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I wanted to just go back to the inventory levels. If you can help us understand how elevated inventories are in the channels relative to normal seasonality across your business? And maybe if you can unpack any product categories where this is more or less pronounced?

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Douglas B. Bingham, Armstrong Flooring, Inc. - Senior VP, CFO & Treasurer [19]

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Sure. Yes. The main impact really is -- at this point is LVT, which is an imported product and just given the uncertainty around tariffs has led to some unusual behavior. So we ended the year -- normally, we end the year at a fairly low point of inventory and then build it back up during Q1. What we saw was that inventories were fairly high at year-end throughout the channel. And so we didn't see that normal change in inventories we have historically.

I think at this point, we -- our inventory position in the channel, it definitely came down. There's probably still a little bit more to go, but I think we expect that by the time we get to the first half, it will be flushed out and cleaned, assuming that there are no further tariff changes as -- that may happen.

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Mason Irwin Marion, Instinet, LLC, Research Division - Research Analyst [20]

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And so in terms of this LVT, is it all types of LVT because I know there's different types of it, both Rigid and legacy non-Rigid product. You're saying elevated inventories across all product types of -- in terms of LVT.

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Douglas B. Bingham, Armstrong Flooring, Inc. - Senior VP, CFO & Treasurer [21]

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Yes. It's probably more pronounced in the Rigid where we've got more sourced product, but we do source some flexible as well. And so there is a fair amount of our product as well as other suppliers that have a lot of flexible product out in the channel.

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Mason Irwin Marion, Instinet, LLC, Research Division - Research Analyst [22]

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So when you look at your -- overall your LVT-related sales, how much did those fall in the quarter? And I know you were painting that picture last quarter, but in terms of your expectations, obviously, a little worse. Was it just LVT that was below expectations? What meaningfully drove it downside?

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Douglas B. Bingham, Armstrong Flooring, Inc. - Senior VP, CFO & Treasurer [23]

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Yes. I think the inventory correction was more or less in line with what we expected. I think the market softness was really the bigger news.

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Mason Irwin Marion, Instinet, LLC, Research Division - Research Analyst [24]

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In terms of the price mix for the business, in light of the inventory situation, it sounds like you're going to get further price increases. Is -- in terms of the implication to your business of getting price through, are you successfully realizing price? And when I say successful, you're realizing it through your channels and is it affecting -- is there an elastic response that's taking place within the portfolio that's harder to identify at least from our standpoint, but you see under the hood.

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Douglas B. Bingham, Armstrong Flooring, Inc. - Senior VP, CFO & Treasurer [25]

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Yes. We've announced price increases effective April 1. We had a price increase that was more commodity driven, and October 1, really meant to recover those costs. It really comes down to the market though and what price the market is going to set. If we see that we're out of line with the competition, then we certainly adjust our price appropriately.

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Mason Irwin Marion, Instinet, LLC, Research Division - Research Analyst [26]

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And last question for me. Just in terms of the tariff and the recent news on that front, what are you guys hearing from your supplier partners about this tariff perspectively going in Friday. Maybe give us a little bit of context on how things are trending if, in fact, there is a 25% tariff put in place, maybe not on Friday but let's assume, a bad case scenario of 25% tariff, how do you guys respond and how do you think that domino falls within your portfolio?

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Dominic C. Rice, Armstrong Flooring, Inc. - Chief Product Officer & Senior VP of Global Operations [27]

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Thank you for the question, Justin. It's Dominic here. I'll take that one. So from an overall portfolio point perspective, source products represents about 35% of our revenue. So not as great an exposure in that respect. And then within LVT, we do have domestic manufacturing. We're well positioned with 3 plants that manufacture LVT in North America. Certainly, we work very closely with our vendors in Asia around any implications or impact that would be from tariffs. They have plans in place. But as we have communicated previously, if necessary, we would anticipate taking some price action to minimize or offset the impact -- the flow through impact of any tariffs.

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Operator [28]

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Our next question comes from the line of Dillard Watt with Stifel.

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Dillard Watt, Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division - Associate [29]

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I wanted to talk a little bit about gross margin. Doug, I believe you quantified something. I apologize I missed it. But if you could maybe help us a little bit understanding how much of the gross margin decline year-over-year was related to inflation versus the lower volume than you anticipated? And then assuming the volume kind of comes back throughout the year and raw materials hold sort of steady, I know that's a big assumption, but where you'll point to the year where we'd start to see maybe a balance of pricing versus inflation.

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Douglas B. Bingham, Armstrong Flooring, Inc. - Senior VP, CFO & Treasurer [30]

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Yes. That's a good question. So if you think of how the inflation panned out last year, it started fairly early in the year and continued through into Q4. So really on a year-on-year basis, we'll have a headwind through most of the year, but it will diminish each quarter.

For this quarter, we've highlighted that we had about $8 million of input cost impact, which we were able to offset in part with some pricing and productivity, assuming that we get some of this price realization from the increase we just did and that should help somewhat and then we also expect that the year-on-year input cost inflation should be less, given that we're not seeing the same sequential headwinds on inflation.

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Dillard Watt, Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division - Associate [31]

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Okay. And then moving down a little bit. SG&A, is that -- first quarter sort of $38 million, is that a decent run rate to use or was there some lower spending due to maybe some incentive compensation or anything like that?

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Douglas B. Bingham, Armstrong Flooring, Inc. - Senior VP, CFO & Treasurer [32]

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Yes. I'd say Q1 was a pretty normal SG&A quarter other than the adjustments that we called out in the recon tables. I think what we're going to try to do today is also get posted on our website some supplemental financial information that will kind of give you some -- a better understanding of the company after the Wood exit and kind of show some historical SG&A figures.

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Dillard Watt, Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division - Associate [33]

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Okay. Great. And then are there any more sort of cost reduction initiatives, charges that you're going to expect to -- expect to take through the rest of the year?

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Douglas B. Bingham, Armstrong Flooring, Inc. - Senior VP, CFO & Treasurer [34]

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Yes. There may be some that kind of dribbling, nothing of large magnitude other than the costs that were in the 8-K that we filed on Friday related to the separation of the CEO.

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Operator [35]

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Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. And I would like to turn the call back to management for closing remarks.

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Larry S. McWilliams, Armstrong Flooring, Inc. - Chairman & Interim CEO [36]

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Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in Armstrong Flooring, and we look forward to updating you on future calls.

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Operator [37]

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This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

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